ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the transport industry across the world since February 2020. Using data from the Hong Kong International Airport, we obtained seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models for passenger movements and air cargo for 2005–2019. The COVID-19 impacts on passenger movements and air cargo were estimated based on differences between the predicted and actual monthly values in 2020. We found that the total number of passenger movements dropped by 86.2% while the total volume of air cargo dropped by 6% in 2020. Additionally, the GHG emission due to the use of aviation kerosene was 10.5 Mt of CO2-eq in 2020;down from 20.8 Mt of CO2-eq in 2019 (i.e., a drop of 49.5%). We also found the significant improvement of visibility at the airport – a rare upside of the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to high unemployment rate in the transport and tourism-related sectors and has a negative economic impact on the aviation sector. Copyright © 2023 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
ABSTRACT
The use of time-series analysis to examine aviation data trends through time comes crucial in planning its future. The prophet is an additive model that fits non-linear patterns. It functions best with historical data from various seasons and time series with significant seasonal impacts. This research looked closely into the aviation data in Zamboanga Peninsula, Jolo, and Tawi-Tawi to give a clearer picture of its impact on the sector and forecast passenger and aircraft movement in the coming months to see whether the impact of the opening in the aviation industry can be sustained. The final data comprise 51 data points for flight arrivals and departures and 51 data points for passenger arrivals and departures. Data show the decline in passengers and aircrafts arriving and departing in major airports in Zamboanga Peninsula, Jolo, and Tawi-Tawi during the pandemic. However, an increasing trend was observed years after the pandemic hit the region. Findings during the training and testing phase revealed that different models attained varied results;however, there are models which attained a higher degree of accuracy as depicted in the RMSE and R2. This indicates that predicting passenger and aircraft movement using models with higher accuracy is similar to real data thus, it is viable in predicting future values. Forecasting results further show a gradually increasing trend of aircraft and passenger arrivals in the major airports in Zamboanga Peninsula, Jolo, and Tawi-Tawi despite some observed smaller forecasted values. © 2022 IEEE.